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User Profile: FollowClick to Follow jsbloklandjeroen blokland@jsbloklandMulti-asset investor. Outsourced CIO. Founder & Head of Research at @true_insights_, YouTube: https://youtube.com/c/JeroenBloklandonMarkets .Financial ServicesNetherlandstrue-insights.netJoined June 2009790 Following97.9K Followers


jeroen blokland@jsblokland 2hThis is a massive monetary policy chart ! And it has something for everyone. Historically, when #inflation matched or crossed the #unemployment rate, the Fed was either done hiking or already cutting rates. So, we are almost there, or the Fed is colossally behind the curve.31224


jeroen blokland@jsblokland 2hWeekly trade volume in #NFTs87


jeroen blokland@jsblokland 6hAs a follow-up to my earlier tweet, the median 3-year ahead expected #inflation rate in the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations has dropped to 3.18%. Forget about the level; the important thing is this is just 0.18% higher than the average of the last 10 years.Quote Tweetjeroen blokland@jsblokland 16hWith central bank balance sheets as large as ever, PEPP and TPI in the Eurozone, yield curve control in Japan, debt sustainability at play, and Covid distortions abundant (waiting times for almost anything remain long), I think markets are extremely complacent about #inflation.1411

With central bank balance sheets as large as ever, PEPP and TPI in the Eurozone, yield curve control in Japan, debt sustainability at play, and Covid distortions abundant (waiting times for almost anything remain long), I think markets are extremely complacent about #inflation.


jeroen blokland@jsblokland 15hThe Daily Insight - Payrolls: everything the Fed didn t want to see We focus on one labor market chart that shows why there is zero chance of a #federalreserve pivot! More here https://linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6962335700989968384/ 41023


jeroen blokland@jsblokland 16hWith central bank balance sheets as large as ever, PEPP and TPI in the Eurozone, yield curve control in Japan, debt sustainability at play, and Covid distortions abundant (waiting times for almost anything remain long), I think markets are extremely complacent about #inflation.31227


jeroen blokland@jsblokland 17hThe #ECB's 'game' is pretty obvious!1160188


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 7Spending USD 700+ billion to fight #inflation. Sure!81181

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jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 7Start this week in financial markets with the major developments of last week. The Sunday Short provides you with the biggest market stories, market direction, and an overview of our research publications.true-insights.netSunday Short (week 31) - True InsightsThe Sunday short gives you a concise overview of the major market developments discussed in this week's research publications.318


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 7Start this week in financial markets with the major developments of last week. The Sunday Short provides you with the biggest market stories, market direction, and an overview of our research publications.true-insights.netSunday Short (week 31) - True InsightsThe Sunday short gives you a concise overview of the major market developments discussed in this week's research publications.318

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True Insights@true_insights_ Aug 7#China's #trade balance hit USD 101 billion in July, the biggest trade surplus on record. #Exports grew faster than expected, signaling resilience of the global economy. #Imports grew marginally, underpinning lackluster growth of the world's second-biggest economy.11440


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 6Over the years, there are compelling clues that #centralbanks have adopted #debt sustainability as a shadow-target of #monetarypolicy. In the case of the #ECB, it is outright obvious. And to steer bond #yields, central banks need a big(ger)balance sheet.21122


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 6The Baltic Dry Index has dropped 55% since late May and is back to its pre-Covid average, confirming supply chain issues are evaporating. Unfortunately, shortages in other parts of the economy, like #employment, are not. #inflation742102


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 6With #inflation at 9.1% and a #recession offering the best option to get inflation down sustainably, the duration & magnitude of the Fed tightening cycle will be determined mainly by your recession odds. The big question is, what is worse for #equities? High or low odds?3324


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 6When you use a chart created or published by someone else, be it a retweet or including your comments, at least try to mention its creator or source. There s a nice chart comparing equities now and in 2008 trending, but the number of mentions is, well, let s say lagging. 2435

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True Insights@true_insights_ Aug 6S&P 500 Index NOW vs 2008! Is this 2008 or more like 1999/2000? Chart @MichaelMOTTCM1563123


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 6This is one of the key charts in the @true_insights_ Weekly Market Monitor covering the latest market developments directly linked to trade ideas. The Bank of England increased rates by the most in more than 25 years even though it expects a five-quarter #recession! #inflation4420


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 5This week: US ISM Services Index unexpectedly up to 56.7 US payrolls increase > 500k, which is a lot Germany factor orders down five months in a row and a cumulative decline of 20% Germany's retail sales down almost 9% YoY Why is the #EURUSD trading above 1?61236


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 5Having to scale back the odds of a US #recession - and after the ISM Services and #payrolls data we have to - is bad news for #equities which remain in Fed La La Land!114

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True Insights@true_insights_ Aug 5That the US economy was able to reverse 22 million lost jobs in less than 2.5 years is both impressive and astonishing. The way it happened, debt/stimulus/liquidity, raises questions about if and how this can be repeated in the future. Was this a truly sustainable recovery?21220

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jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 5The divergence! Which #employment measure captures changing economic activity better? #Payrolls to the moon, killing all Fed pivot hope, or the household survey, which has been flat since March, keeping the we are almost there narrative alive. chart @albertedwards991416


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 5Let's invest together! Quote TweetTrue Insights@true_insights_ Aug 5Our research directly helps you to find new investment opportunities and trade ideas. This week, we provide a new trade idea in #bonds, re-iterate our latest trade in #currencies, and explain how to play this #equitymarket #rally. Let's invest together! https://true-insights.net12


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 5An ugly chart accompanying an ugly #centralbank message. The Bank of England expects the UK economy to go into a prolonged #recession with #inflation peaking above 13%. Extraordinary indeed. (chart ht @johnauthers )73064


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 5ICYMI! The price of crude #oil has dropped below USD 90, bringing further downside pressure on #inflation and inflation expectations. Long-term inflation expectations are closely correlated with short-term changes in oil prices.81531


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 4The word #dystopian is massively overused!535

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True Insights@true_insights_ Aug 4#Coinbase s 10% rise after striking a deal with the world s largest asset manager, #BlackRock, allowing its clients to manage their #Bitcoin exposure is not the key news. It s financial integration. There is no old or new investment universe.2824


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 4As recent price action proves, #equities have totally priced in five-quarters of UK #recession, 13% #inflation, and still more monetary tightening. #LALALAND4625


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 4With short-term US bond #yields moving higher this week, the 10-year - 2-year US #yieldcurve has become more inverted, and the 10-year - 3-month yield curve has become even flatter. I expect it to turn negative at least within the next two #FOMC meetings, but likely earlier.1834


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 4#Employment and #earnings are among the last dominos to fall in the run-up to a #recession. More info tomorrow with the #payrolls coming up.11229

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True Insights@true_insights_ Aug 4linkedin.comTrue Insights on LinkedIn: In today's Daily Insight, we look at the nine-point gap that has openedIn today's Daily Insight, we look at the nine-point gap that has opened up between the ISM Services Index and the S&P Global US Services PMI. https://...29


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 4#Germany's factory orders are down five months in a row! Cumulative decline almost 10%! #recession (ht @C_Barraud )31229


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 3This is why the #ECB needed a black box tool that is unlimited in size. No more difficult questions! #TPI ht @AndreasSteno31131


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 3So what are the ISM Services Index (rising to 56.7 in July) and the S&P Global US Services PMI (down to 47.3 in July) actually measuring?4422


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 3#amtddigital #HKD is another example that crazy things happen regularly in global equity markets. And not just related to extremely volatile assess like penny stocks or #crypto. chart @TheMarketDog2511

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True Insights@true_insights_ Aug 3We published the Monthly Investor Guide August! In over 80 charts, we take you through all major developments in #Macro, #Sentiment, and #Valuation and how to position your global multi-asset #portfolio to navigate markets. Questions? Send us a message at info@true-insights.net33


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 3T rkiye Producer Price #Inflation (#PPI) 144.6%!32048

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True Insights@true_insights_ Aug 2The meltdown of #China s real estate sector, representing the biggest asset class in the world, is intensifying. And there is no easy way out of it, meaning global repercussions. https://linkedin.com/posts/true-insights-investment-research_china-boycott-homeowners-activity-6960131366524964864-rM0J?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=ios_app 11325


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 2Your opinion on #Pelosi visiting #Taiwan.Support34%Provocation39.7%Ignorant18.3%Other, please specify8%958 votes Final results845


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 2#China flexing its muscles the minute #Pelosi reaches #Taiwan, the first US House Leader to do so since 1997, should be reflected in an uptick of the risk premium on #equities. #pelositaiwan821


jeroen blokland@jsblokland Aug 2Often, an implosion of asset prices has the same origin: too much #leverage with rising #volatility. #Bitcoin is no exception. After that corrects, a new cycle starts. I'm not saying we are there yet. Just pointing out Bitcoin is not that different from other risky asset classes.4843

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