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User Profile: FollowClick to Follow cullenrocheCullen Roche@cullenrocheHelping people make smarter & more disciplined decisions with their money. | CIO @disciplinefunds | Founder @orcamgroup | Author @pragcap Financial ServicesEncinitas, CAdisciplinefunds.comJoined February 20091,905 Following74.3K Followers

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Sep 21, 2021I am THRILLED to announce the official launch of the Discipline Fund ETF, which is now trading on the NYSE under the ticker DSCF. $DSCF9831477

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche 1hDay 3 of 7 without mom: The older of the two terrorists is making me watch non-stop episodes of a show where they repeat mantras like O-toodles and Meeshka Mushka Mickey Mouse . It sounds like an old Russian torture technique. Send help.1230

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche 23hDay 2 of 7 without mom: Dad is still alive, but he has succumbed to the terrorists demands of Doritos for every meal and Xmas pajamas all day.115118


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Aug 7The definitive expert on this to pic. Learn from him.Quote TweetMichael Mauboussin@mjmauboussin Aug 7The confusion and sloppy thinking about share buybacks is remarkable. The proposed excise tax on share buybacks is further evidence of this. https://barrons.com/articles/stock-buyback-tax-inflation-bill-sinema-51659710077?mod=hp_LEAD_3 Show this thread4330


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Aug 5If you d invested $10,000 in the Nasdaq Buyback Index when it was started in 2007 you d have EXACTLY the same amount of money as you d have if you d bought the S&P 500. Stock buybacks do not automatically increase share value!Quote TweetChuck Marr@ChuckCBPP Aug 5Corporations have two basic ways to distribute profits to their shareholders: issue dividends (the traditional route) or offer to buy back a certain number of their own shares, which in turn raises the value of remaining stocks held by individuals and institutionsShow this thread141168

Corporations have two basic ways to distribute profits to their shareholders: issue dividends (the traditional route) or offer to buy back a certain number of their own shares, which in turn raises the value of remaining stocks held by individuals and institutionsShow this thread

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Deon Gouws@DeonGouws_Credo Aug 3Whether or not you're interested in the recession question, the first 20 seconds of this clip is a MUST WATCH :-)Quote TweetCullen Roche@cullenroche Aug 2Is the USA in a recession? My 2 year old daughter gives the definitive answer in this short video. https://youtu.be/qAkBt2yfADw18


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Aug 2Is the USA in a recession? My 2 year old daughter gives the definitive answer in this short video.youtube.comIs the USA in a Recession?Is the USA in a recession? While the media has traditionally referred to a recession as 2 quarters of negative GDP the White House and NBER disagree that the...5435


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Aug 1Q3 GDP Now already being downgraded to 1.3%. Are we going to get three consecutive quarters of negative growth?10740


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Aug 1Good sign on prices/inflation. New orders also way down though so demand is slowing. Mixed bag here .Quote TweetCarl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla Aug 1GOLDMAN: "The [ISM] prices paid measure fell by 18.5pt to 60.0, the fourth largest monthly decline since the series began in 1948."Show this thread1121

GOLDMAN: "The [ISM] prices paid measure fell by 18.5pt to 60.0, the fourth largest monthly decline since the series began in 1948."Show this thread


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 31This was a fantastic interview with @Ivy_Zelman on the state of housing. Must listen if you want to digest the risks in housing and the broader economy thru 2023/4.Quote TweetBilal Hafeez@bilalhafeez123 Jul 22Had a great conversation with @Ivy_Zelman on our podcast this week! She co-founded Zelman & Associates in 2007, which is a leading US housing research firm. We discuss how COVID impacted housing, the Airbnb effect, why US house prices will fall and more! https://macrohive.com/hive-podcasts/ep-122-ivy-zelman-on-the-coming-us-housing-crisis/ 3418


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 28Me, at 25: I d like to be retired by 40 so I can sit on a beach all day Me, at 42: I m gonna need that 50 spf to go for a 10 minute walk outside. GIFread image descriptionALT9163


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 27Binary bias. People prefer binary outcomes because full spectrum thinking requires too much critical thought. In other words, we're lazy. \_( )_/ Quote TweetJoe Weisenthal@TheStalwart Jul 27The recession obsession is bizarre. The economy is what it is. Inflation is way too high. The labor market in the first half grew quite rapidly. Real wage growth is negative. There are signs of cooling. What additional info is revealed by designating it a recession or not?Show this thread8973

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Stig T. Brodersen@stig_brodersen Jul 27I'll be doing an interview with @cullenroche. What topics and questions would you like for us to cover?19134


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 25I don't know whether we're in a technical recession or not, but a simple indicator like the Misery Index shows that, regardless of the definition, this environment doesn't feel great for a lot of people.2444251


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 25Dominos Pizza stock is down 30% and the White House wants us to believe this isn t a recession. GIFread image descriptionALT441


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 25I pick all of them. There are no bad cheeseburgers. Except Beyond Burger. That is some trash.Quote TweetTodayInSports@TodayInSportsCo Jul 24Tough choice. Pick one.18368


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 22See the latest 3 Minute Money for a quick explanation of this concept and help me kill the money multiplier for good.youtube.comThe Myth of the Money Multiplier - How Banking Really WorksThis video explains why the traditional money multiplier theory is incorrect. We explain how bank lending is related to reserves and the correct causation of...4332

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 22While reserves can certainly influence banks in many ways it's erroneous to assume that reserve balances initiate the loan creation process. Capital and demand for loans is the proper starting point for understanding loan creation.3233

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 22First, banks CANNOT lend reserves to non-banks. Second, interest on reserves was 0% for most of the last 10 years. Who thinks banks are sitting on 0% interest bearing reserves while foregoing profitable potential lending opportunities? That makes no sense!6445

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 22I keep trying to kill the money multiplier and it keeps coming back. This time, it's Sheila Bair in the FT saying that banks won't lend out their reserves because they're earning interest on reserves. No, no, no!!! https://ft.com/content/b82082c9-d26a-47a5-8b1a-34121f572645 1313100

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 20"How do you put up with California?"437220


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 20Some academics are like "wahhh, the peer review process is so cumbersome." Why don't you try two peers under two.220

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 20Been working on this paper for a year and I finally got the peer review that I needed to publish it.6265

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Alf@MacroAlf Jul 15I get very often asked about the best global macro books out there. Here is 10 books I found exceptionally good. 1/121381,0644,658

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 15Has anyone in human history ever eaten just one soft chocolate chip cookie?2124

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 15To the creator of the soft chocolate chip cookie:GIFread image descriptionALT118

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 14Have a nice day!Quote TweetSteve Randy Waldman@interfluidity Jul 14"The Risk of Deflation is now Greater than the Risk of Prolonged High Inflation" @cullenroche https://pragcap.com/the-risk-of-deflation-is-now-greater-than-the-risk-of-prolonged-high-inflation/ 13440


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 13New video up - 3 Minute Myth Busting, the Myth of the Money Multiplier and how Banks Really Work. youtube.comThe Myth of the Money Multiplier - How Banking Really WorksThis video explains why the traditional money multiplier theory is incorrect. We explain how bank lending is related to reserves and the correct causation of...4233


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 13Relax big Bern!! $22T is only about 9% of all global stocks and bonds.Quote TweetBernie Sanders@SenSanders Jul 11Today, in America, just three Wall Street firms BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street - manage $22 trillion in assets. These three firms are major shareholders in more than 96 percent of S&P 500 companies. Obscene.8464


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 12Lotta commentary about how high home prices will result in continued surging rents and prolonged high inflation. The Fed was worried about the same thing in 2007 and the opposite risk was reality. \_( )_/ 131584


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 11Yikes. Home builder survey on housing: Someone turned out the lights This feels like a big recession Quote TweetRick Palacios Jr.@RickPalaciosJr Jul 11June home builder sentiment and survey results are in. Top themes: 1) A lot more new home buyers cancelling. 2) Price cuts becoming fairly common. 3) Drop in demand finally cooling construction cost pressures (builder layoffs also happening). Market commentary to follow Show this thread121382


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 7The economy (and the market) doesn't operate like a light switch. It doesn't turn on OR off in some binary (recession/no recession) manner. It's more like a light dimmer and the lights are getting dimmer right now.10866


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 5new 3 Minute Money - The Flow of Funds and the Monetary Machine. - Understanding stocks & flows - Some financial basic accounting - Paradox of thrift, etc.youtube.comThe Flow of Funds and the Monetary MachineThis video explains the concept of stocks and flows in the economy and how assets fuel the growth of the economy through a constant flow of funds. You'll lea...4637


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 5Commodities collapsing. Dollar surging. Yield curve inverting. The combination of these events are not good signs.1023022,128


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 1In short: 1) Government's shouldn't pay millionaires billions of dollars to play a game. 2) A govt funded sports league erodes the quality of the game by eliminating the competitive nature of events.416

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 1Some random Friday reading. I wrote about the economic problem with LIV golf. Why it's anti-competitive and bad for golf. https://pragcap.com/the-economic-problem-with-liv-golf/ 719

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Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 1GDP Now down to -2.1%. Crazy how fast the rate hikes are slowing the economy. Will the Fed keep the pedal to the metal into 2023?2530158


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 1Big thanks to @amazon and @AmazonKDP. They make the process of self publishing incredibly easy. If you're thinking about self publishing I highly recommend KDP.Quote TweetCullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 1After two years of severe supply constraints I am pleased to announce that I have intervened to supply liquidity in the market for my book Pragmatic Capitalism. New *updated* second edition is officially available. https://amazon.com/Pragmatic-Capitalism-Every-Investor-Finance/dp/B0B47DWNJG/ref=pd_lpo_2?pd_rd_i=B0B47DWNJG&psc=1 Show this thread123


Cullen Roche@cullenroche Jul 1Deflation is officially here. The price of my book is down 99% from its high.Quote TweetCullen Roche@cullenroche Jun 16The plan is to undercut this person trying to sell the book for $46,000. I will sell the book for $45,000. Competition is good for markets.Show this thread922

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