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User Profile: FollowClick to Follow charliebilelloCharlie Bilello@charliebilelloFounder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors. Investor | Writer | Reader | Thinker | Sharing ideas that compound. http://Compound.blogJoin free newsletter here...compoundadvisors.com/newsletterJoined May 2013121 Following455.6K Followers

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello 10hWhat impact will "The Inflation Reduction Act" have on US inflation?When you make a selection it cannot be changedWill reduce inflation.Will have no net impact.Will increase inflation.2,574 votes 13 hours left311666


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello 9hGlobal Inflation Rates...35313777


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello 9hGlobal Central Bank Update: -New Zealand hikes rates for the 7th time in the last year, 50 bps increase to 3.00%.873210


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello 9hInflation in the UK moves above 10% for the first time, its highest level since records began in 1989. The Bank of England remains far behind the curve with a rate of 1.75%. Charting via @ycharts662239


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello 10hEvery week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most important charts and themes in markets. Subscribe here:compoundadvisors.comThe Compound NewsletterEvery week we send a letter to tens of thousands of investors with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Don t miss our latest insights. Note: to complete your subscription, please click...114

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello 10hWhy retail sales are still holding up...Quote TweetCharlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 6US Wages increased 5.2% over the last year while consumer prices (CPI) rose 9.1%. How are Americans still spending given this enormous gap? They're saving less (savings rate at lowest level since 2009) and borrowing more (consumer credit increasing at fastest pace since 2011).Show this thread21553

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello 10hIn nominal terms, US Retail Sales are still strong, hitting another all-time high in July, up 3.6% over the last 6 months. But after adjusting for inflation, the story changes. Real Retail Sales peaked in April 2021 & are down 1.1% over the last 6 months. Charting via @ycharts20114394

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello 10hThe US Housing Market Index (measure of homebuilder confidence) fell for the 8th straight month, moving back below 50 for the first time since May 2020. Key quote: "19% of homebuilders reported reducing prices in the past month to increase sales or limit cancellations."341136


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello 10hHousing Starts hit a 17-month low in July, down 8% year-over-year. Tends to be a leading indicator for the economy, recessionary signals continue to build. Charting via @ycharts383241

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 15New Post: 9-Chart Monday... https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/9-chart-monday-8-15-22 1324154


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 15Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Subscribe here:compoundadvisors.comThe Compound NewsletterEvery week we send a letter to tens of thousands of investors with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Don t miss our latest insights. Note: to complete your subscription, please click...2117

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 15Gas prices in the US move down to $3.95/gallon (national average), $1.06 below their all-time high in mid-June and at their lowest levels in over 5 months.17107391


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 15The Los Angeles area was the nation s least affordable major housing market for the 7th straight quarter, with less than 4% of the homes sold being affordable to families earning the area s median income ($90k). The top 5 least affordable housing markets are all in California.846187


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 15New Post: 9-Chart Monday... https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/9-chart-monday-8-15-22 1324154


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 15Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Subscribe here:compoundadvisors.comThe Compound NewsletterEvery week we send a letter to tens of thousands of investors with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Don t miss our latest insights. Note: to complete your subscription, please click...1211

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 14Workers who switched jobs received wage increases of 6.7% over the last year vs. 4.9% for those who stayed at their jobs. With data going back to 1997, this is the widest gap we've ever seen.33185906

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13The greatest trick the ECB ever pulled was convincing the eurozone that negative rates were a good thing.1655363


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Subscribe here:compoundadvisors.comThe Compound NewsletterEvery week we send a letter to tens of thousands of investors with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Don t miss our latest insights. Note: to complete your subscription, please click...1117

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13All of the US wage growth since the start of the borrowing/printing binge has been a mirage, up 13% in nominal terms but down 1% after adjusting for higher prices. Initially, everyone loves "free money." It's only w/ the passage of time that the ravages of inflation are revealed.18195643


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13The Ratio of Emerging Markets to US stocks is at its lowest level since 2001. Over the last 12 years, EM is up 28% while US equities have more than quadrupled.26215709


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13Global container freight rates have hit a 15-month low, down 46% from their peak. Still 4x higher than pre-pandemic levels but moving in the right direction.282611,008

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13Gas prices in the US move down to $3.97/gallon (national average), $1.05 below their all-time high in mid-June and at their lowest levels in over 5 months.1329153


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13Combined revenue of Apple/Microsoft/Amazon/Google ($ Billions)... 2022: $1,350 '21: $1,291 '20: $1,016 '19: $844 '18: $750 '17: $630 '16: $539 '15: $505 '14: $448 '13: $387 '12: $345 '11: $286 '10: $206 '09: $154 '08: $143 2007: $116 Over 11x in 15 years (18% ann. growth).1556238


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13The combined revenue of Apple and Microsoft is $586 billion over the past year vs. $2.3 trillion for the Russell 2000.823197

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13At $4.94 trillion, the market cap of Apple & Microsoft is now $1.75 trillion higher than the combined market value of all the companies in the Russell 2000 ($3.19 trillion). $AAPL $MSFT Data via @ycharts27132563

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13 Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. Jeremy Grantham, 2006624147

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13After hitting a record high in Q2 2021 of 13.5%, S&P 500 profit margins have moved down to 10.9% in Q2 2022 as sales growth has slowed and companies are having a more difficult time passing on rising costs to their customers...9106432

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Subscribe here:compoundadvisors.comThe Compound NewsletterEvery week we send a letter to tens of thousands of investors with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Don t miss our latest insights. Note: to complete your subscription, please click...3129

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 12The S&P 500 has rallied over 17% from its intra-day low on June 17? Was that the bottom (June 17 low will hold) or is this just a dead cat bounce (lower lows ahead)?Bottom is in.44.5%Lower lows ahead.55.5%6,605 votes Final results3639150


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13With 91% of companies reported, S&P 500 GAAP earnings are down 12% year-over-year, on pace for the largest YoY decline we've seen since Q2 2020. $SPX34183527


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 13The combined revenue of the 4 largest US companies hit a record $1.35 trillion over last 12 months... Apple $AAPL: $388 billion Microsoft $MSFT: $198 billion Google $GOOGL: $278 billion Amazon $AMZN: $486 billion That's larger than the GDP of all but 14 countries.50180737


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 132022 Returns $GME: +10% $TWTR: +2% $AAPL: -3% $MSFT: -13% $AMZN: -14% $TSLA: -15% $GOOG: -15% $ADBE: -21% $CRM: -25% $TEAM: -26% $AMD: -30% $MRNA: -33% $NVDA: -36% $ZM: -40% $ETSY: -45% $SQ: -46% $PYPL: -46% $META: -46% $SPOT: -47% $SNOW: -50% $NFLX: -59% $SHOP: -70% $SNAP: -75%50243955


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 12Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Subscribe here:compoundadvisors.comThe Compound NewsletterEvery week we send a letter to tens of thousands of investors with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Don t miss our latest insights. Note: to complete your subscription, please click...319

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 12The S&P 500 has rallied over 17% from its intra-day low on June 17? Was that the bottom (June 17 low will hold) or is this just a dead cat bounce (lower lows ahead)?Bottom is in.44.5%Lower lows ahead.55.5%6,605 votes Final results3639150


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 12But are these the right comps, or should we be comparing the 2022 bear to short-lived bears in 2020/2018/2011/1998 which hit a low in <6 months and never looked back? We'll only know the answer in hindsight.1758348

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 12Comparing the current S&P 500 rally to rallies in the 2000-02 and 2007-09 bear markets...954381,664

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Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 1244% of US homes for sale faced bidding wars in July, the 6th straight monthly decline & lowest % on record w/ exception of April 2020. A year ago the rate was 64% and in January it hit a high of 69.8%. (note: bidding war is defined as an offer with at least one competing bid).972329


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 12Returns, Last 10 Years.. Bitcoin $BTC: +206,440% Tesla $TSLA: +14,709% NVIDIA $NVDA: +5,427% Netflix $NFLX: +2,782% AMD $AMD: +2,229% Domino's $DPZ: 1,236% Amazon $AMZN: +1,115% Microsoft $MSFT: +1,065% Apple $AAPL: +800% Google $GOOGL: +649% S&P 500 $SPY: +264% Gold $GLD: +7%1034851,858


Charlie Bilello@charliebilello Aug 12Nasdaq 100 Total Returns 2000: -37% 2001: -33% 2002: -38% 2003: +50% 2004: +11% 2005: +2% 2006: +7% 2007: +19% 2008: -42% 2009: +55% 2010: +20% 2011: +4% 2012: +18% 2013: +37% 2014: +19% 2015: +10% 2016: +7% 2017: +33% 2018: +.04% 2019: +39% 2020: +49% 2021: +27% 2022 YTD: -17%23103388

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