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User Profile: Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Wharton. McKinsey. UBS. Securities industry since '94. Asia ex-pat in '80s-90s. Elected to Mill Valley City Council in '20. Blocked by Zero Hedge since 2010. San Francisco fat-pitch.blogspot.com Joined May 2009

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz 22 Feb 2019 More 1. There s no PPT 2. The Fed has been hated for 105 years 3. High probabilities do not imply certainty 4. It can always be different this time 5. Things go up over time 6. We re not all going to agree 67 replies 112 retweets 719 likes Reply 67 Retweet 112 Retweeted 112 Like 719 Liked 719 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 4 More Things got pretty extreme on Friday. $CPCE at the highest since the 8% DD before the election (LHS). $VIX at one of the highest levels in 10 yrs (RHS). Unless we re repeating the pandemic crush, this looks like capitulation pic.twitter.com/gwg89DJMIl 9 replies 25 retweets 123 likes Reply 9 Retweet 25 Retweeted 25 Like 123 Liked 123 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 3 More Urban Carmel Retweeted Urban Carmel $SPX down -1.2% this wk but $TLT up +2.7% #winning https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1465718954626748421 Urban Carmel added, Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Back to the high of the year (again) $TLT pic.twitter.com/91enfCnhkT Show this thread 0 replies 2 retweets 14 likes Reply Retweet 2 Retweeted 2 Like 14 Liked 14 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 3 More Urban Carmel Retweeted Urban Carmel Pierced but held to close the week $spx https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1466217160573739010 Urban Carmel added, Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz $SPX sitting right on its 20-weekly ma (blue line). This can certainly get pierced another 2% to get everyone into beartown but this is more often S pic.twitter.com/ZSvL00ubLb Show this thread 0 replies 2 retweets 14 likes Reply Retweet 2 Retweeted 2 Like 14 Liked 14 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 3 More This is the day the narrative on Cathie Wood broke $arkk pic.twitter.com/C3x3COmNgi 12 replies 13 retweets 73 likes Reply 12 Retweet 13 Retweeted 13 Like 73 Liked 73

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 3 More Urban Carmel Retweeted Liz Ann Sonders With $vix around 27, 1% daily moves in $SPX are what you d expect https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1466764535260499977 Urban Carmel added, Liz Ann SondersVerified account @LizAnnSonders VIX currently around 27: when readings have been between 25 and 30, ~1% swings in S&P 500 are par for course since 1990 @SPDJIndices @CBOE pic.twitter.com/DSFN6JIaL0 2 replies 3 retweets 28 likes Reply 2 Retweet 3 Retweeted 3 Like 28 Liked 28 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 3 More Urban Carmel Retweeted Urban Carmel Re: Today s NFP miss (210k actual vs 580k consensus) https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/649931469750595584 Urban Carmel added, Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz On today s NFP miss and why you should not be surprised or alarmed pic.twitter.com/D7dWNsH7Fv 0 replies 2 retweets 14 likes Reply Retweet 2 Retweeted 2 Like 14 Liked 14 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 2 More $CPCE >60 for the first time since Aug. All instances since the election shown below pic.twitter.com/VFggX0T3yT 1 reply 24 retweets 95 likes Reply 1 Retweet 24 Retweeted 24 Like 95 Liked 95 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 2 More Urban Carmel Retweeted Urban Carmel https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1328865499174686720 Urban Carmel added, Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz This is how it works https://twitter.com/WillieDelwiche/status/1328713503939710978 Show this thread 2 replies 2 retweets 4 likes Reply 2 Retweet 2 Retweeted 2 Like 4 Liked 4 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 2 More Urban Carmel Retweeted Urban Carmel Since 1980, $SPX has fallen an avg of 14% intra-year. Take out the worst 8 yrs - where $SPX fell 20-50% - and the avg is still a fall of 10%. This year s max is just 5%. You ll likely see mean reversion in the next 12 mo. Get yourself mentally prepared https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1466211012361609218 Urban Carmel added, Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz $SPX is down 4% from its ATH; the very broad Russell 3K is down 5%. Fin Twit feels like the deathly hallows. Low volatility years like these make everyone super sensitive to every little nudge Show this thread 5 replies 11 retweets 83 likes Reply 5 Retweet 11 Retweeted 11 Like 83 Liked 83 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 2 More If you re trying to use Nasdaq breadth to show underlying deterioration, you ve got a massive fundamental problem pic.twitter.com/uTiaLCCfOK 4 replies 12 retweets 59 likes Reply 4 Retweet 12 Retweeted 12 Like 59 Liked 59 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 2 More Urban Carmel Retweeted Urban Carmel https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1328000228969111553 Urban Carmel added, Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Breadth confirmation has a major problem: all equity market returns come from just 7% of stocks. It s a feature not a bug pic.twitter.com/2j5v5SycaK Show this thread 3 replies 3 retweets 28 likes Reply 3 Retweet 3 Retweeted 3 Like 28 Liked 28 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 2 More Spend 2 seconds on Fin Twit and you ll see why equities fell 5% in Sept, rose 10% in Oct and then fell 4% again. Overreacting in both directions is what equities do. Set your sails on things like macro but trim based on psychology because that s what drives short term action 3 replies 3 retweets 65 likes Reply 3 Retweet 3 Retweeted 3 Like 65 Liked 65 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 1 More Market cap averages are down 4-5%, equal weight averages are down 6% and geometric and arithmetic averages are down 9%. That s what you d expect. There s nothing weird going on pic.twitter.com/EVWjcqklap 0 replies 7 retweets 32 likes Reply Retweet 7 Retweeted 7 Like 32 Liked 32 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 1 More $SPX sitting right on its 20-weekly ma (blue line). This can certainly get pierced another 2% to get everyone into beartown but this is more often S pic.twitter.com/ZSvL00ubLb 4 replies 7 retweets 56 likes Reply 4 Retweet 7 Retweeted 7 Like 56 Liked 56 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 1 More On 11/3, Risk/Reward looked biased to the downside (arrow on chart; also, scroll up). That s reversed and 'wild guess' is that R/R strongly favors upside by more than 3:1 pic.twitter.com/rmyqlhQUS1 4 replies 13 retweets 50 likes Reply 4 Retweet 13 Retweeted 13 Like 50 Liked 50 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 1 More $SPX is down 4% from its ATH; the very broad Russell 3K is down 5%. Fin Twit feels like the deathly hallows. Low volatility years like these make everyone super sensitive to every little nudge 10 replies 8 retweets 74 likes Reply 10 Retweet 8 Retweeted 8 Like 74 Liked 74 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 1 More Fear & Greed back down to 22. We ve been down here 3 other times this year (vertical lines and blue text). F&G was 86 the day small caps peaked 3 weeks ago pic.twitter.com/vGlhgwNUIw 2 replies 10 retweets 55 likes Reply 2 Retweet 10 Retweeted 10 Like 55 Liked 55 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 1 More Prior tweet: here s an updated chart. NYMO <-80 has been the low the last 2 times but that hasn t been the case most often (because of momentum) pic.twitter.com/thvZs4wfoG 1 reply 6 retweets 37 likes Reply 1 Retweet 6 Retweeted 6 Like 37 Liked 37 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 1 More Urban Carmel Retweeted Urban Carmel $NYMO dropped to -88 today. Last time it was down here was July 19 (a low). https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1321583261479362560 Urban Carmel added, Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Breadth momentum ($NYMO) hit -81 today. Sometimes that s the $SPX bottom, but more often there s more selling ahead (either directly or after a bounce) pic.twitter.com/lTnzsl7RaP Show this thread 3 replies 7 retweets 38 likes Reply 3 Retweet 7 Retweeted 7 Like 38 Liked 38 Show this thread Show this thread

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Dec 1 More Urban Carmel Retweeted Urban Carmel Recall as well that after rising 4 wks in a row, there was a surprisingly high propsensity for weakness to follow near term https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1453762964125671424 Urban Carmel added, Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz Prior tweet: otoh, in half of those 26 instances, any further gains were given back over the next 1-3 mo (yellow shading) pic.twitter.com/tqXF7oImF8 Show this thread 1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes Reply 1 Retweet 2 Retweeted 2 Like 20 Liked 20 Show this thread Show this thread

ukarlewitz


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