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User Profile: FollowClick to Follow ukarlewitzUrban Carmel@ukarlewitzWharton. McKinsey. UBS. Securities industry since '94. Asia ex-pat in '80s-90s. Elected to Mill Valley City Council in '20. Blocked by Zero Hedge since 2010.San Franciscofat-pitch.blogspot.comJoined May 2009180 Following83.2K Followers

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Feb 22, 20191. There s no PPT 2. The Fed has been hated for 105 years 3. High probabilities do not imply certainty 4. It can always be different this time 5. Things go up over time 6. We re not all going to agree79136767

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz 6h$NYSI will be about +521 today. See thread. $NYMO was >70 last week and 52 today. It has a head of stream and when $NYSI goes from negative to >500 with a head of steam after >10% drop in $SPX, price has already made its low32174

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 5Here's employment normalized for population. 80% in July is slightly better than the avg in the first 6-mo of 2022. Strong, but it was even stronger in the 1990s1617

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 5If past is prologue then NFP will drop under 50k at least 6-mo before the next recession. It hasn't even been under 250k in the past 1-1/2 years31654

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 5No amount of objective data can kill the buyback zombieQuote TweetCullen Roche@cullenroche Aug 5If you d invested $10,000 in the Nasdaq Buyback Index when it was started in 2007 you d have EXACTLY the same amount of money as you d have if you d bought the S&P 500. Stock buybacks do not automatically increase share value! twitter.com/ChuckCBPP/stat 1212

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 5This thread involves no fancy math or models. You can get a pretty accurate read on the economy by just blocking out the noise and reading publicly available data objectively5127

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 5Avg employment gain in the first 6 months of 2022 was 538k, very close to the 528k gain in July. Not recessionaryQuote TweetConor Sen@conorsen Aug 5You don't go from 300-500k monthly prints to negative prints in 6 months. If you're worried about a job loss recession you've got to kick that view to 2023.3718

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 5Quote TweetLiz Young@LizYoungStrat Aug 4Speculative positioning in S&P 500 futures--bets on where investors think the S&P 500 will go--turned bearish in Jun and got more bearish since. That's despite a big rally in Jul. Implies that many still think this is a bear market rally and we could dip back down.6629

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 4This was the lowQuote TweetUrban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jun 16$16b equity MF + ETF outflow this past week, the largest since June 2020 (Lipper) https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1309192707328286720 Show this thread2323

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 4$SPX up 14% and $NDX up 20% has improved sentiment a bit but it's still very negative. Outflows from funds this week. II and AAII are still in bear town. NAAIM below neutral32360

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 4Nearly 15 years ago, we started slip sliding into the GFC. Since then, $SPX is up 150% and EPS is up nearly the same, 130%. Valuations are a bit higher (17.7x vs 19.3x) and buybacks have reduced shares by 5%, but the market has gained because of profits71397


Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 3$NYSI Summation will about +367 today with $NYMO of +70. That momentum will carry to $NYSI +500 in the days aheadQuote TweetUrban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 28$NYSI will be about +68 today. +500 Summation following >10% drops since 2003: 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2020 https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1552423244678021121 Show this thread1427

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 2For completeness, here are the only 2 years that didn't gain through YE: 1956 (at an ATH in Aug) and 1978 (within 1% of an ATH in Sept)1318

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 2Bespoke: when July >5%, either the rest of the year has been up or the month of August has been up, with the exception of 1956, a year very different to now as stocks were at a ATH at the start of August https://bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/strongest-july-in-post-wwii-era 11647

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 1Quote TweetDean Christians, CMT@DeanChristians Aug 1The most interesting breadth thrust signal from last week that very few, if any, are discussing. What do the bond guys know?2318

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Aug 1$SPXADP (advances less declines divided by total issues) averaged over 30% in the past 2 wks. Marked big lows in 2010, 2016 and 2019. Most often, $SPX tended to chop or give back gains in the next month. Notes on chart31555

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 30Quote TweetJonathan Harrier, CMT@jonathanharrier Jul 30A rare & important momentum event just happened: The 20-day High-Low reading for $SPX just crossed > 50%, and *stayed there for 2 days*. The key is being able to hold that strength for more than one day. N=9 since Nov-85 vs N=66 when using only one day. Fwd results in table. Show this thread1732

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 29Energy spending as a percent of income in June still about 20% lower than a decade ago and half the level 40 years ago. Oil down 20% since the June peak22354

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 29A recession where companies make more and consumers earn and spend moreQuote TweetMike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT@MikeZaccardi Jul 29All six variables used by the NBER to make its recession determination have expanded since Dec 2121334

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 29A recession where companies can't hire enoughQuote TweetDean Baker@DeanBaker13 Jul 29Fun facts: In the first six months of the 1981-82 recession, we lost 1,046k jobs, in the first six months of the 1990-01 recession we lost 690k jobs, in 2001 we lost 761k jobs, in 2007-09, we lost 705k jobs. In 2022 we gained 2,740k jobs.2526

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 29One stinker in 2002 but otherwise, pretty pretty goodQuote TweetEd Clissold@edclissold Jul 29Percent of $SPX stocks at 20-day new highs rose above 55% for first time since June 2020 (concept thanks to Jeff DeGraaf). This marks the 3rd breadth thrust signal in the last 8 trading sessions. Broader than off the March and May lows. @WillieDelwiche @RenMacLLCShow this thread2423

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 29True: stock market leads recessions by avg 6 months (except in 1990, and there was almost no warning in 2007). It's also been wrong more times than not (see Keynes) But several economic data points lead the stock market, like employment, housing, the 10-2 yield curve and the LEI2742

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 28$SPX catching up to $NDX, approaching the May/June high, April low, 38% retrace and the 20-weekly MA. This is where the market's true colors will be revealed21863

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 28$NYSI will be about +68 today. +500 Summation following >10% drops since 2003: 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2020Quote TweetUrban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 27$NYSI Summation will be positive tomorrow for the first time since mid-January. Getting over +500 after >10% drop has been a good sign since 2003Show this thread1319

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 27$NYSI Summation will be positive tomorrow for the first time since mid-January. Getting over +500 after >10% drop has been a good sign since 200352290

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 27$NDX fell 3 days and then gained it back today. In the process, another higher low, successful backtest of the June/July chop zone and the 50-d is now curling up3860

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 27He's not wrongQuote TweetJoe Weisenthal@TheStalwart Jul 27Powell notes that 2.7 million people have been hired since the start of the year, which is not consistent with an economy in recession.Show this thread2133

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 24Ok, but 3 of those 6 blue bars to the left were red this year and the tallest one (April) was the worst month of the year, down 9%. Hard to say markets are following any seasonal pattern4826

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 24Update of charts above heading into FOMC on Wednesday and the most important week of all-time $SPX $NDX $ARKK $TNX71437

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 23Updated chart belowQuote Tweet @takis2910 Jul 23US #trucking activity surged by 2.7% in June, sharpest m/m pace since May'20. Intriguing in light of recessionary flags. industry is great harbinger of bubbles (#dotcom, #GFC) and supports 250k #payroll additions for July (red, #NFP 5/8). Underpinned.2522

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 22Trucking tonnage and employment from @takis29104743

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 22The best approach is to follow your own advice and not anyone else's. When things go right you can take all the credit and if they go wrong you know who to blame2360


Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 22The chorus of recession calls are just sentiment, a reflection of stock price51973

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 22Truck tonnage in June up +8% yoy and just shy of the ATH in Aug 2019 is not a sign of pending economic doom, for example. Trucks carry 70% of US freight (from ATA)52767

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 22FinTwit's recency bias fixation: Real retail sales rips +20% in 2021 and then (not surprisingly) flattens out a year later viewed as recessionary. Same with LEI, now flattening out after a post-pandemic rip just as it did several times in the 90s and 2012-13 w/o a recession3634

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 21Nothing but equity fund outflows, this past week the largest since -$16b the week of 6/15 (Lipper)41551

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 21$NDX approaching 20-wma (LHS; blue line weekly chart) which equals early June high (RHS; blue shading daily chart). Note RSI (top panel)11035

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 21With durable goods, industrial production, housing starts and employment recently at either ATH or multi-year highs, recession risk seems overblown. Tweet below strikes the right balance imoQuote TweetGregory Daco@GregDaco Jul 21We've witnessed a rise in claims since their trough in March but current levels remains historically low (well below 300k which generally coincides with recessions onset) & conversations with executives don t indicate any immediate appetite for broad-based layoffs via @EY_USShow this thread3529

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Urban Carmel@ukarlewitz Jul 21Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) now 6 months removed from its cycle high in December. So there's that. OTOH, it's still way above its pre-pandemic level. Like housing starts, retail sales and employment, it exploded in 2020-21 and has recently cooled off2422

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