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User Profile: FollowClick to Follow TihoBrkanTiho Brkan@TihoBrkanFamily office with a global focus on investing in high-quality assets at attractive valuations (quality businesses, prime property & funding litigation claims).Malta London Prague Brisbanetihobrkan.comJoined August 20150 Following41.2K Followers

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Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Jul 21Don't force cash to work just because inflation is at 9% or because the rate your banks pays on it is low. Return on cash is a secondary factor, but the "optionality" it provides is a primary factor. Cash gives one options in a downturn, precisely when others don't have it.518127


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan 7hTo truly understand a business you have to hold an objective view on why customers spend money on its products and services. That way, you ll also know why they might stop spending it one day. You won t need a CNBC interview, Reuters headline or Goldman to tell you.27


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan 7hThis game is tough. You have some of the smartest people running hedge funds that are struggling to beat the S&P & they are charging 2/20 while underperforming. Private small investors have a clear edge: simplicity. Choice a broad index fund over a very long time horizon.3124

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Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan 17hMcKinsey survey of 2207 executives on decision-making: only 28% said the quality of decisions was good 60% said bad decisions were about as frequent as good ones remaining 12% thought good decisions were infrequent Decision-making is a skill that can be learned.312


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan 10hAccording to the family office survey, structuring a deal that makes it highly favourable to the investor (LP) matters more than the business fundamentals, sponsor track record, or investment strategy itself.19


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan 11hInvestors confuse memory for reasoning. What does this mean? What they are doing now, with today's hindsight, would have been profitable if done several years ago. "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." Wayne Gretzky49


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan 11hInvesting is just as much about survival (not losing) as it is about progress (compounding). Investors who evolve over time will eventually shed habits of imitation in favour of their own investment style and rule-set usually learned through the school of hard knocks.624


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan 14hA recent family office survey concluded that families continue to favour investments that are short-duration, local, tax-efficient, and already cash-flowing. These are winning more allocations than any other allocation opportunities right now.113


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan 16hThis morning's sunrise in the Greek islands. 0:104.3K views7394


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan 17hMcKinsey survey of 2207 executives on decision-making: only 28% said the quality of decisions was good 60% said bad decisions were about as frequent as good ones remaining 12% thought good decisions were infrequent Decision-making is a skill that can be learned.312


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan 17hCloning is a very powerful mental model in life as well as in your investing journey. What you want to do is clone the best practices from the most successful and wise investors. What you don't want to do is take a shortcut, where you substitute cloning for hard work.626


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 7When it comes to investing in a business, the only thing you can t fix is the price you pay. When it comes to property, two things that can t be changed is the price you pay and the location. Pay attention to the essential factors, which are the first principles of investing.44


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 7There is nothing new under the sun. Many of the previous cycles have similarities to current ones. We can always expect, with high degree of certainty, that people will exhibit foolishness with their money. Countless examples of investors paying > 10x Sales in 2020/21.436

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Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 4What's more important at the current point in your life?Personal savings ratio24.4%My portfolio returns39.5%Building my business36.1%681 votes Final results213


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 7The only correct prediction we can make consistently in the field of finance and economics is that we are predictably irrational. All other predictions and "forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future. Warren Buffett1039


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 7It is much easier to spot the mistakes of others than our own shortcuts, biases, blind spots and obvious decisions leading to harm. In "Richer Wiser Happier" @williamgreen72 writes about advice Munger recommended to him: find a rational sparing partner that is bias-conscious.2216


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 7According to @HarvardBiz, managers make about 3 billion decisions each year. Just think of all the issues going against them: decision fatigue emotional & physical stress biases & blind spots multitasking information overload incorrect data urgency & rushing1220


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 6It wouldn t be objective of me if I didn t mention Alibaba $BABA as a classic example of this from October 2020 around $300 handle all the way down to $70 handle and it s summer or 2022.113

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Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 6Why don t quality businesses trade at cheap valuation? Instead of asking buyers, use inversion By asking a short seller: The best short ideas often look cheap the whole way down. They attract value investors. Jim Chanos Crap businesses always look cheap (for a reason).1523

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Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 6 The definition of a true partner is someone who shares your level of risk. Sam Zell4974


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 6Once we are anchored on a theory or committed to a decision, it is very difficult to change our minds. Faced with the choice between changing one s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. John Kenneth Galbraith417


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 5Be on the lookout for groupthink and social proof. Our desire to belong is stronger than to seek facts. For it is dangerous to attach one s self to the crowd in front, and so long as each one of us is more willing to trust another than to judge for himself. Seneca17


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 5Property bottoms during times of distress. That is a wonderful time to be buying. Ample margin of safety with significant upside potential means positive risk/reward asymmetry. On the contrary, no distress means near-perfect conditions, which historically occurred near peaks.1416


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 5From a contrarian's perspective, the best time to find RE deals is during times of distress (high levels of delinquency). It is also not very competitive, since many investors around you are struggling & cash deprived. Should we expect delinquencies to rise meaningfully?2323


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 5Investor's discipline in two steps. 1. Having a system (mandate or rule set) in place that has a clear and sustainable edge (time arbitrage & long-termism is a great edge for private investors) 2. Sticking to that system no matter what, through thick and thin of it522


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 5I have tweeted a meaningful amount of residential real estate charts this week. The weight of the evidence would suggest that downside risks outweigh the upside potential for the US housing market. Despite some obvious risks, lending behaviour is nothing like 2004-06 period.214


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 5I used to live in HK and it made (at least some) sense as to why property prices were so extreme. Structural supply issues mixed with a flood of money from mainland China kept pushing prices higher. It is harder to justify/rationalise in the US, Australia and NZ though.412


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 4What's more important at the current point in your life?Personal savings ratio24.4%My portfolio returns39.5%Building my business36.1%681 votes Final results213

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Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 4For a business to be considered high-quality, it has to have the ability to maintain & protect the real (inflation-adjusted) value of its cash flows in all economic conditions. That means: strong pricing power high margins low capital intensity low or no debt11047


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 4We don't like using indices for residential property (price comps & CAP rates are more useful), but it is a starting point to glance at valuations. Looking at the broad picture for US housing, how much "value" is there right now? The key word is "value".112


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 4Welcome to economics. In social science, in contrast to natural science, it seems that by the time one goes in search of empirical evidence, a favoured theory has already been chosen, and evidence is being gathered not in order to test it but to confirm it. Lee McIntyre1216


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 4The field of psychology discusses the illusion effects: illusion of knowledge, illusion of control, frequency illusion, illusion of validity & objectivity, and so on. In the field of economics & finance, there is an illusion of wealth (favoured by central bankers).1115


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 4Supply vs Demand. There is a major supply spike in the US housing market at the same time as affordability tanks (cost of mortgages + borrowing capacity). Interesting times ahead...415


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 4Time arbitrage is the most important edge for a private investor. The longer you hold onto a quality asset (businesses or property) the more likely driver of its returns will be its cash flows (fundamentals) rather than the valuations (investor sentiment & interest rate swings).3645


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 4For a business to be considered high-quality, it has to have the ability to maintain & protect the real (inflation-adjusted) value of its cash flows in all economic conditions. That means: strong pricing power high margins low capital intensity low or no debt11047


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 3We already have the art of war, the art of not giving a f*ck, the art of asset allocation, the art of thinking clearly, the art of seduction, the art of learning, etc. Someone (wise) needs to write the art of reducing mistakes, sidestepping pitfalls and avoiding idiocy.5238


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 3This chart by @VisualCap is very interesting. High versus low paying professions, as well as professions that are in high and low demand. 1328

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Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 3US residential housing affordability. How much can you borrow at the current mortgage interest rate for every $1,000 worth of amortised mortgage payment? Affordability is back to 2008 levels (first seen in 2003). How will this impact housing prices?220


Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan Aug 3Just because risky assets (e.g. stocks) decline during a recession, does not mean housing will follow. However, a spike in mortgage costs coupled with borrowing reduction results in reduced demand. If that is accompanied by sharply rising supply, it could be a perfect storm.2225



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