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User Profile: FollowClick to Follow ScottMinerdScott Minerd@ScottMinerdGlobal Chief Investment Officer of @GuggenheimPtnrs. These are my views on the global economy and financial markets August 2010269 Following142.6K Followers

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd 2h#FOMC minutes seem to confirm my earlier suspicion of a "soft pivot," which means the #Fed is open to slowing or pausing further rate moves while it digests incoming weaker economic data. Jackson Hole will offer a new window into potential policy moves. @sonalibasak2319120

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Aug 11As we expected, #CPI #inflation began to moderate in July with the downturn in commodity prices, supply side improvements, and signs of demand destruction in the broader economy. These trends should continue.

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Aug 10Today's #CPI report shows #inflation moderation as we expected. The trend continues in August. Will the Fed continue tightening to slow employment growth to contain wage gains? That may be a difficult sell in D.C. if headline inflation is tamed. Employment will be in focus.2218100

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Aug 3There will never be another Vin Scully. Vin, we'll miss C Classic: Gibson's 1988 WS walk-off home runKirk Gibson wins Game 1 of the 1988 World Series for the Dodgers with a dramatic two-run home run in the bottom of the 9th inningAbout Major League Baseball:...9244

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 29It is really hard to argue we are not in a #recession but the Fed is unlikely to admit it until it hits the labor market. views152379

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 27Three dovish #Fed signals today: Saying that #economic activity is slowing, that the lagged effects of prior big hikes are yet to be felt, and that #fedfunds is now at the neutral rate. All suggest that a more data dependent stance is now in place.4696513

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 21After four consecutive monthly declines, the leading economic indicators signal that #recession is on the way. You ve been warned.1563241,440

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 11History seems to indicate that any rate increase from this point on will fall into restrictive territory ultimately resulting in #recession.

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 11Any coordinated intervention to slow appreciation in order to support our European allies, Japan & EM countries would run counter to monetary policy goals and lead to a premature policy pivot or monetary crisis.101278

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Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 11The #Fed will be tested as the #USdollar continues to strengthen and inflation & interest rates surge in Europe & Japan:425113

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Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 11The relentless strengthening of the #USdollar, which has little overhead resistance, will continue with the #Fed s aggressive tightening, the weakening European economy, gas shutoff from Russia, and #BOJ yield curve control.1541140

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 8The June #FOMCminutes show the #Fed is on autopilot until they get rates into restrictive territory. Any signs of a growth slowdown will take a backseat, especially as they have said they are willing to bear some economic pain to get #inflation down.81375

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 8Unlike the strong #payrolls print, the household survey showed a 315k decline. It is a noisy survey, but it is telling us that #employment growth is likely to slow and that we may already be in a #recession.61664

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 8Today in America we join the world in mourning the tragic loss of courageous leader Shinzo Abe. His passing is a loss for our friends in Japan and for all freedom loving people. Let us rededicate ourselves to his vision of a peaceful prosperous world with opportunity for all.5297

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 8Tonight the world holds vigil for Japan's longest serving Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, whose revolutionary policies framed the economic future of Japan. Our sincerest consolation to our friends in Japan. Our prayers are with you.211174

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 6As long as the stock market decline is orderly, the Fed is completely focused on #inflation and will continue to press until they break something. TweetGuggenheim Partners@GuggenheimPtnrs Jul 6.@ScottMinerd, Chairman of Guggenheim Investments and Guggenheim Partners Global CIO, joins @CNBC to discuss #Fed policy, value in #fixedincome, #crypto, and more. views1339102

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jul 12Q real GDP is now tracking negative, which would make for the second consecutive quarterly contraction. This, plus 3 (and likely to be 4) consecutive negative months of the LEI suggests a #recession may have already begun.

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 20If raising taxes and reducing the budget deficit are on the table per the readout of Biden/Summers call then #fiscal and monetary policy would be both be tightening, all but assuring a #recession.2923139

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 20Reinforcing my view that now is a good time to extend duration, #StLouisFed President Bullard is on the tape saying that once #inflation is tamed, the constellation of rates may include 10-year Treasury yields at 1.86% and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.96%.1920134

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 20 A not-so-soft landing. The NY Fed is coming around to my point of view on recession probability.libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.orgThe New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast June 2022 - Liberty Street EconomicsThis post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast...81467

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 19A sign of the crypto market maturing? https://mbitcasino.com15240

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 17In a #recession scenario, which I think we re going into, none of the risk assets do well.

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 16A strong #dollar is good for #inflation, but it introduces other risks. What will be the #Fed s reaction function to exporting our monetary policy to the rest of the world. Japan especially is under extreme pressure because we're raising rates and driving the dollar up.1525132

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 16The collapse of crypto is the canary in the coal mine. Crypto told us ahead of time that #stocks were going to be in trouble. And until we find a bottom here in crypto, we're not going to get a bottom in anything else.107111655

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 16Crypto has proven not to be a diversifying asset class, or a safe haven. It is a high beta play on risk.154126812

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 15All risk assets are just a no-go. You don't want a lot of low-quality #credit at this point. You don't want #stocks. You want to really stay in the higher end of the credit spectrum.5551308

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 15Reminder: The US has never had #inflation come down by more than two percentage points in a year without a #recession.2087371

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 15All the numbers in the #SEP are fantasyland. The unemployment rate is fantasyland, the rate at which #inflation is going to come down is fantasyland.1422136

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 15The #Fed is going to have a hard time explaining to people that we can go down this interest rate path and not find ourselves in a #recession or some kind of financial accident. I think it's inevitable.2336230

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 15If my scenario is correct, which is that the weakening economy is going to catch the #Fed off guard, we're sitting at the peak or close to the peak in long-term rates. Our internal models have flipped to favoring long #bonds over owning #stocks.99189982

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 15Bleak retail sales may spell negative consumption expenditures and #GDP contraction in the 2nd quarter, increasing the probability that the US economy is already in #recession.2369237

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd Jun 13Now that #JPM has called for a 75 bps hike, the @WSJ has reported it, and the swap market is pricing it in, the #Fed has little choice but to follow through or look like they are behind the curve. This may even put 100 bps on the table.3292314

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd May 24Aggressive #Fed policy has led to higher Treasury market volatility, a broader de-risking by investors and, in turn, wider credit spreads. But we are far from stresses that would trigger a default cycle.

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd May 24As long as the stock selloff is orderly, the #Fed will not stop current policy strategy. #wef22 #Davos views2647149

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd May 20I look forward to the discussions with @Goal17Partners in Davos during the 2022 @WEF conference where this year's message will be focused on "Being in the Business of Building a Better World". #WEF22 #Goal17Solutions #SDG1715820

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd May 19The #Fed seems to be quite comfortable to watch the stock market go down as long as it is an orderly decline.

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd May 18As the #Fed tightens into a downturn, investors want to know when a #recession will occur. It could be as early as the second half of next year.

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd May 5The #Fed has been very clear about its commitment to fighting #inflation, and that is an environment where #bonds perform well. #MIGlobal2:489.6K views141177

Scott Minerd@ScottMinerd May 5Post-FOMC presser was reassuring: Powell nixed a 75bp rate hike, instead saying 50bp on the table for next couple of meetings. This should support decline in yields at the short end of the curve. His answer on the stock market and financial conditions was also pro-risk.111697

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Scott Minerd

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