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User Profile: FollowClick to Follow NorthmanTraderSven Henrich@NorthmanTraderFounder: NorthmanTrader. Navigating changing markets. Keeping it real. Subscribe: http://northmantrader.com/market-service England, United Kingdomnorthmantrader.comJoined July 201288 Following402K Followers

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 4Navigating Risk Reward: Following the latest big bear rally risk/reward may be shifting. An update on macro and technicals.northmantrader.comNavigating Risk RewardTime for an update on macro and technicals as we are navigating through the complex market fog of war in 2022 and I ll throw in some observations on psychology as well for good measure. First 1940184

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 5hMarket Dashboard:northmantrader.comMarket DashboardSubscriber access. To subscribe please visit Market Services on NorthmanTrader.com. Whereas the Daily Market Brief goes into depth on macro and technical charts and our strategic outlook, the Marke 118


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 6hThe week is young, but for now the $SPX trend line continues to act as resistance.1518139

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 6hShe was quite the singer actually. Most may not know this but she once covered a traditional English ballad:youtube.comOlivia Newton-John - Greensleeves3262

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 6hRIP Olivia Newton-JohnGIFread image descriptionALT1118249

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 6hFyi: Last year we saw the largest market cap/GDP expansion in history with over 200%. For reference: If a global recession were to ensue in 2000 and during the GFC the cycle lows bottomed near the historic average of 50%-75%. A mere reconnect to 100% would represent 2500 on $SPX.1329176


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 6hIn typical cycles markets don't find their cycle bottom until the Fed is already deep into their rate cutting cycle not while the Fed is still raising rates. Why? Cause typically the Fed doesn't cut rates until it breaks things with rate hikes & brings about a broader recession.Quote TweetInvesting.com@Investingcom 8h*ARK INVEST'S CATHIE WOOD SAYS U.S. ECONOMY IS IN A RECESSION *WOOD SAYS FED WILL USHER IN RATE CUTS NEXT YEAR2721174


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 8hIf the S&P 500 rallies just 2.5% per week from here on out we d have record highs before the next Fed meeting. 2524421


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 9hWhen you think the $SPY will never go down again, but then turns red on the day.0:11103.9K views2897890


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 9hYou know you're old school when...1224449


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 11hThe Fed sure is having a full grip on slowing demand down. Imagine you talk hawkish every day and yet markets just keep squeezing higher & headlines are filled with meme stocks being halted with limit ups again GIFread image descriptionALT2038278


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 12hyup Quote Tweetzerohedge@zerohedge 12h*GAMESTOP RESUMES TRADING, SHARES EXTEND GAINS, UP 17%73140

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 12hThe 2021 headlines are back.Quote Tweet*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone 12h$AMC Paused due to volatility1918255

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 12hSelf described inflation fighters injecting more liquidity.Quote TweetFT Europe@ftbrussels Aug 7ECB injects billions of euros into weaker eurozone debt markets https://on.ft.com/3BOzwey835225


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 13hGood news = good news as no recession Bad news = good news as the Fed will pivot Ergo: All news is good news #sentimentcheck3447532


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 14hThis will either end up in the biggest Fed flip flop ever seen or the biggest market misread of the Fed ever.. The outcome of either scenario will be the biggest driver of future market direction. Not earnings, not growth. Fed.861431,254


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 14hReal disposable personal income growth:Quote TweetLiz Ann Sonders@LizAnnSonders 15hTrend in monthly gain in average hourly earnings has been strong since April, keeping upward pressure on wage inflation (though not in real terms)725121

Trend in monthly gain in average hourly earnings has been strong since April, keeping upward pressure on wage inflation (though not in real terms)


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 14hThe IRS readying its new enforcement personnel after receiving $80B in new funding.57133964


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 15hDaily Market Brief:northmantrader.comDaily Market BriefSubscriber content. To subscribe to the Daily Market Brief please visit Market Services on NorthmanTrader.com. The Daily Market Brief is an in-depth market analysis published each trading day by Sv 116


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 17hA classic bear market rally after the big drop.0:238.5M viewsFrom Lazy27102868


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader 17hThoughts and prayers for bears.Quote TweetFXHedge@Fxhedgers 20hGARTMAN SAYS MARKET TO DROP 20% FROM CURRENT LEVEL BY YEAR-END: BBG3126367


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 7It s consistent messaging though. After all: In 2018 tax cuts didn t increase deficits. In 2019 QE wasn t QE. In 2020 record stimulus wasn t inflationary. and in 2021 inflation was transitory.2259564

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 7In 2022 consecutive negative GDP quarters are not recessions and $740B spending bills reduce inflation & deficits.1244432,703

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 7If I had taken all the money I have ever spent on food and invested it in the stock market instead I d be dead by now.3657944


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 7Alternate headline: Nancy ruins Christmas.Quote Tweetunusual_whales@unusual_whales Aug 7Apple, $AAPL, may delay the release of the new iphone 14 due to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, per GSM ArenaShow this thread1730328


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 7What is actually real retail spending without the reliance on piling into credit card debt while rates are rising? Americans opened 233 million new credit card accounts during the second quarter, the most since 2008, the NY Fed report found. cnn.comConsumer debt tops $16 trillion as inflation fuels credit card surge | CNN BusinessAmericans are piling up credit card debt as they struggle to keep up with the high cost of living.3354265


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 7Investing without QE is hard.Quote TweetInvesting.com@Investingcom Aug 7*BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY POSTS $43.8 BILLION LOSS AS STOCK HOLDINGS TUMBLE IN Q2 - https://invst.ly/yp8-u $BRK.A $BRK.B892391,834


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5Financial conditions now easier compared to when the Fed started raising rates. And if this doesn't solve inflation we just don't know what will.2931332


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5Market Dashboard:northmantrader.comMarket DashboardSubscriber access. To subscribe please visit Market Services on NorthmanTrader.com. Whereas the Daily Market Brief goes into depth on macro and technical charts and our strategic outlook, the Marke 4219


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5NorthCast Market Update: Reality Check $SPX $NDX $BPSPX https://getrevue.co/profile/TheNorthCast/issues/reality-check-spx-ndx-bpndx-1285007 7674


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5Stuff happens0:28138.7K views1262591,764


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5All the fear is gone and the sky is blue. $VIX down 8 weeks in a row.5339505


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5How's that monetary tightening going?Quote TweetBreaking Market News @financialjuice Aug 5US CONSUMER CREDIT ACTUAL 40.154B (FORECAST 27B, PREVIOUS 22.35B) $MACRO2830321


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5Over the last 67 years very low unemployment has shown itself to be one of the most dangerous times for the economy. Especially in context of high inflation.51125702


Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5That smacking sound you're hearing is that jobs beat punching the Fed pivot narrative in the face. Yields rising, markets dropping.1933212

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5At least it wasn't 7 sigma. #winningQuote Tweetzerohedge@zerohedge Aug 5This was a 6 sigma beat to expectations.64100

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5Consensus seems to be really bad at forecasting.3121487

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5Markets remain a gaming the Fed pivot operation and all incoming data will be interpreted with that lens in mind.1922287

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Sven Henrich@NorthmanTrader Aug 5You know why markets are ignoring Fed speakers that call for a 4% Fed funds rate? Because they don t believe them. At all. They choose to believe Powell s perceived pivot signal last month where he threw the previous month s 23 3.8% Fed s fund rate forecast out the window.3446380



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