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User Profile: FollowClick to Follow JustinWolfersJustin Wolfers@JustinWolfersProfessor @UMichEcon & @FordSchool | @NYTimes contributor | Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst & @PIIE | Intro Econ textbook author | Think Like an Economist podcastAnn Arbor, MInber.org/~jwolfersJoined July 20111,417 Following213.5K Followers
Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 16To make American great, we must reduce the price ofcrudit s50.3%canap s49.7%591 votes Final results27937 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 14The gender gaps coming out of bible studies programs are really something to behold (though to be fair, gaps this big must be largely driven by non-participation rather than wages of those working):5918 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 12Two parties, two directions.1352237 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 12Wait until he does the math and discovers [mind blown gif] that prices actually FELL in July (albeit only a smidge).166128 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 12Here's the data for June and July, graphed. And now the question I would simply never have thought to add to a freshman exam: Calculate the inflation rate in July.1216204 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 12Yes, sweetheart, but if the consumer price index was 295.3 in June (it was) and it was also 295.3 in July (also true), then it does follow that the consumer price index didn't rise in July, and hence inflation (aka the rate of change of prices) was 0%.Quote TweetDinesh D'Souza@DineshDSouza Aug 10If inflation is at 8.5 percent in June and remains at 8.5 percent in July, it does NOT follow that the inflation rate for July is 0 percent. This is shameless prevarication! twitter.com/PressSec/statu 65128969 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 11It follows that Biden lied about stagflation! (even though he never used the term).Quote TweetPaul Krugman@paulkrugman Aug 11Gotta say, Republicans don't rest on their laurels. The "Biden lied about inflation!" discourse is making the "Biden lied about recession!" discourse look reasonable by comparison1222 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 11If there's one thing recent inflation data have made clear, it's that misunderstanding of first derivatives is growing strongly (or perhaps it's just a high level?)1515151 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 11The U.S. is at risk of losing an economically, culturally, and politically important export market -- one that creates high-quality high-pay jobs, and turbo charges the spread of ideas to the world.Quote TweetCaleb Watney@calebwatney Aug 11Seems bad!Show this thread2748170 Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Matthew Yglesias@mattyglesias Aug 11The hill that I am literally going to die on is that there was a zero percent inflation rate in July because it s true. This dipshit won t just say that s true even though it s true, so he keeps shifting around to other claims.Quote TweetNoam Blum@neontaster Aug 11Matt is really going to die on the hill that prices aren t high because month over month was zero. You should be press secretary! twitter.com/mattyglesias/s 177801,098 Show this thread Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Harvard Graduate School of Arts and Sciences@HarvardGSAS Aug 10The rate of #inflation fell in July but still remains high. What are the sources of the price hikes? Does the Fed need to be aggressive or patient? Where is the US economy headed next? Economists @JustinWolfers and @BetseyStevenson of @fordschool weigh in.gsas.harvard.eduBoom, Bust, or Simply Getting Better?A surge in hiring. Soaring inflation. Two of the country's leading economists both GSAS alumni try to make sense of the numbers.3617 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10My most controversial opinion is that I find the new look of Gmail to be quite lovely.9251 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10One of my undergraduate research assistants just read a reference I wrote to a Rube Goldberg machine, told me they had to google it, and suggested I substitute in a Dr Heinz Doofenshmirtz contraption instead and I've never felt so old. Also who's right about the better metaphor?Stick with Rube Goldberg81.5%Dr Heinz Doofenshmirtz18.5%766 votes Final results21422 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10A friend texts an interesting CPI detail...2651315 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10Two things can be true: 1. Today's inflation number was encouraging. It tempers a lot of recent pessimism. This may be the start of a disinflationary trend. 2. This was just one month's data and it wouldn't be surprising if (core) inflation were to run a little hotter next month10117557 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10Some useful context on that encouraging core inflation print:Quote TweetMike Konczal@rortybomb Aug 10Forget the zero headline; core inflation takes a dive last month, coming in at an annualized 3%, driven by a decrease in services. Compare it to the ~5% average it's been at since October 2021. One month doesn't make a trend, but the most encouraging print I could have imagined.Show this thread5114454 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10The reduction in goods inflation may have (finally!) arrived: Goods (ex food and energy) up only +0.2% last month, after running at a much hotter pace through the year. Services inflation also appears to be moderating, at +0.4% last month.6107557 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10Overall inflation still remains worryingly high, running at 8.5% over the past year (down from 9.1%). A lot of that reflects the energy crisis, so better to focus on core inflation, which is 5.9% over the past year, which is the same as last month.25133714 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10Holy cow: There was ZERO inflation last month. That's the headline number, which is well below expectations of +0.2%. Also a good core inflation reading: +0.3%, also below expectations of 0.5%. Finally some good news on the inflation front. We've likely seen the inflation peak.6804,75815.9K Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10 Someone tweeted a very, very bad study, presumably without reading it. Someone else liked the results and likes/trusts the original tweeter, so re-tweets it..without reading it. Someone else liked the results... and so on . alasdairmunro.substack.comHow junk science got spread like wildfireThe remarkable story of how scientists with some of the worlds biggest platforms shared a fatally flawed pre-print51032 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10Important point: The stone age technology the IRS has had to deal with isn't an accident, but the result of ideologically driven sabotage designed as a backdoor tax cut for those who deserve it least.1055231 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10A (perhaps the) leading sociologist informs me that this is the (ahem) handiwork of anthropologists ackshually.Quote TweetTim Gill@timgill924 Aug 10Replying to @JustinWolfers*anthropology7132 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10Qualitative sociology is finally getting some love.Quote TweetTim Gill@timgill924 Aug 9Lots of generative discussion on this new piece of research at #ASA2022.10537 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 10The state of the IRS is...Quote TweetCatherine Rampell@crampell Aug 9Dems are about to give $80b to IRS. Mostly for enforcement, as you've prob heard but some of the $$ will also go toward upgrading the agency's IT. Which is desperately needed. How can you tell? Let me take you on a tour, starting with the IRS cafeteria https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2022/irs-pipeline-tax-return-delays/?itid=hp_opinions Show this thread63190 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 9On the independence of irrelevant alternatives...Quote TweetAdam Serwer @AdamSerwer Aug 8I just don't know how you respond to people who feel oppressed by the existence of consumer choices for people who are not them https://washingtonpost.com/food/2022/08/03/cracker-barrel-impossible-sausage/ 1431 Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Scott Crosson @FishEcon Aug 9Student: what would be a real-life example of the sunk cost fallacy? Teacher:Quote TweetVariety@Variety Aug 8Warner Bros. is planning on giving #TheFlash the full blockbuster treatment. The film cost too much money to scrap the project entirely and it likely will not generate the revenues needed to turn a profit without playing in theaters. https://bit.ly/3BMko1b740146 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 9Here's the always valuable @rajivatbarnard, who makes the excellent point that PredictIt was one of the few sites on the internet to foster viewpoint diversity.rajivsethi.substack.comThe Closing of a Prediction MarketThe prediction market PredictIt has been operating under a no-action letter from the CFTC since 2014. This permission has now been withdrawn, and the exchange has been ordered to liquidate all open...2340 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 9It appears that the CFTC is shutting down @PredictIt, which is probably our leading political prediction market in the U.S. Hard to believe you can bet on sports, but not on socially-useful contracts linked to political, economic and social outcomes.politico.comNo future: Regulator orders political prediction market to shut down in U.S."The stock market for politics" has drawn new scrutiny from the top U.S. derivatives regulator.950124 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 9That sure sounds like a whole lotta measurement error to me. I'm not sure anyone actually believes we became less productive last quarter. [Note: This is not a dig at the BLS... data are noisy; measurement is difficult, etc]Quote TweetBLS-Labor Statistics@BLS_gov Aug 9Productivity decreases 4.6% in Q2 2022; unit labor costs increase 10.8% (annual rates) http://go.usa.gov/vrn #Productivity #BLSdata151664 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 9The @WSJ has a terrific piece on big data tracking the salaries of men and women graduates by university and major. One snippet: Women graduating from @umichECON slightly out-earn men: https://wsj.com/articles/gender-not-college-determine-first-salary-find-your-school-here-11659972206?mod=djemRTE_h Michigan News and 2 others51585 Show this thread Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Ricardo Perez-Truglia@pereztruglia Aug 9I always wanted to create illustrations for my research papers, but I have no artistic skills whatsoever. Thanks to @OpenAI, that s no longer a problem. I had a blast creating with DALLE, and I encourage you to try it too. My favorite creations below #EconTwitter322231,256 Show this thread Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 7Talking about (50-year low) unemployment and (40-year high) inflation with @PamelaBrownCNN, and suggesting the glass really is half full.1:074K views21144 Show this thread Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 7I'm not really a "stick to your lane" guy, but the idea that an economist has anything original, useful, or insightful to add about the origins of covid-19 strikes me as very unlikey. It would take an economist with the hubris of Jeff Sachs to think otherwise. https://twitter.com/niubi/status/1556026540466610176 This Tweet is unavailable.2211155 This Tweet is unavailable. Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 6Hey, I'll be on @CNN with the amazing @PamelaBrownCNN in just a couple of minutes, talking jobs, inflation, estimation of the Phillips Curves, VARs, the role of structural versus reduced-form methods in modern macro. Also, a chance to see my landshark in shot.3239 Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 6It's always fun when your alma mater calls to have a chat about the economy...Quote TweetHarvard Graduate School of Arts and Sciences@HarvardGSAS Aug 5"Employers are...expanding hiring. We are still in the midst of an economic boom. But equally, the necessary efforts to reduce inflation continue to put the economy at risk of a recession." @BetseyStevenson & @JustinWolfers on the state of the economy: https://bit.ly/3d6EBEz4226 Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Paul Krugman@paulkrugman Aug 6Conversation overheard at supermarket meat counter: Customer:"Meat just keeps getting more expensive" Butcher: "Actually, prices have been coming down"3,2162,46119.1K Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Justin Wolfers Retweeted Room Rater@ratemyskyperoom Aug 6And then a cat appeared. With regret Room Rater only goes to 10. @JustinWolfersQuote TweetRoom Rater@ratemyskyperoom Aug 6Nice living room setup. Great depth. Pillows. Land shark. Room Rater doesn t rate accessories but a little surprised @SRuhle didn t weigh in on those glasses. 10/10 @JustinWolfers1627611 Nice living room setup. Great depth. Pillows. Land shark. Room Rater doesn t rate accessories but a little surprised @SRuhle didn t weigh in on those glasses. 10/10 @JustinWolfers Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers Aug 6Hey, I'll be on MSNBC in just a few minutes talking with @SRuhle, talking about those jobs numbers. Also: Trying a totally different Zoom room setup (trying to better the one @BetseyStevenson used earlier tonight). cc @ratemyskyperoomQuote Tweet11th Hour@11thHour Aug 6A weekend of work for Dems to pass the Inflation Reduction Act-the July jobs report exceeds expectations-Alex Jones ordered to pay $45M more to Sandy Hook parents-and conspiracy theories on display at CPAC @SRuhle anchors @peterbakernyt @JustinWolfers @lukebroadwater @BeschlossDC9451
Why Americans are so confused about what's happening with inflation
YAHOO!FinanceTue, Aug 16, 2022 12:10 PM PT
The Fed could get lucky or things might go wrong. A guide to where the economy might go from here
MarketWatchWed, Jul 27, 2022 12:37 AM PT
Democrats reach deal to pass major climate bill after Sinema says yes – US politics live
The Guardian on MSN.comFri, Aug 05, 2022 09:01 AM PT
0% inflation is nice, but this number from today’s CPI report is even more encouraging
Fast CompanyWed, Aug 10, 2022 11:01 AM PT
U.S. jobs report shows growth in July. Is it enough to avoid a recession?
San Francisco ExaminerFri, Aug 05, 2022 09:45 AM PT
With Surge in July, U.S. Recovers the Jobs Lost in the Pandemic
The New York TimesFri, Aug 05, 2022 06:39 PM PT
