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User Profile: Justin WolfersVerified account @JustinWolfers Professor @UMichEcon & @FordSchool | @NYTimes contributor | Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst & @PIIE | Intro Econ textbook author | Think Like an Economist podcast Ann Arbor, MI nber.org/~jwolfers Joined July 2011

Michael R. Strain Verified account @MichaelRStrain Dec 3 More .@JustinWolfers: "This points to a rather intriguing possibility: Perhaps the expectation that workers will be able to get a better deal in the future is creating the reality that they re getting a better deal today." https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/opinion/economy-biden-november-jobs-report.html?smid=tw-share 0 replies 3 retweets 25 likes Reply Retweet 3 Retweeted 3 Like 25 Liked 25

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 4 More "Using algorithms that give weight to certain adjectives based on their placement in the story, it rated the coverage Biden received in the first 11 months of 2021 and the coverage President Donald Trump got in the first 11 months of 2020..." https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/03/biden-media-coverage-worse-trump-favorable/ 2 replies 7 retweets 20 likes Reply 2 Retweet 7 Retweeted 7 Like 20 Liked 20

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 4 More Can a Michigan Football Game Make Me Happy Forever? https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/opinion/michigan-ohio-football-happiness.html?referringSource=articleShare 3 replies 5 retweets 38 likes Reply 3 Retweet 5 Retweeted 5 Like 38 Liked 38

New York Times Opinion Verified account @nytopinion Dec 4 More When jobs are scarce, workers usually fear the worst and take the first job that comes their way. A pandemic downturn, however, is a different story, @JustinWolfers writes. https://nyti.ms/3y43EPf 2 replies 6 retweets 20 likes Reply 2 Retweet 6 Retweeted 6 Like 20 Liked 20

Betsey Stevenson @BetseyStevenson Dec 3 More An important lens into why quits can be high, unemployment can be low, but we still aren't fully recovered with employment still too low: @justinwolfers explains that workers are optimistic about the future, but the future hasn't come yet. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/opinion/economy-biden-november-jobs-report.html 0 replies 15 retweets 42 likes Reply Retweet 15 Retweeted 15 Like 42 Liked 42

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More Hey, if you want to see my new glasses, they'll be inside your teevee in 4 minutes, talking about the latest economic numbers with @AnaCabrera on @CNN. 4 replies 0 retweets 22 likes Reply 4 Retweet Retweeted Like 22 Liked 22

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More Justin Wolfers Retweeted . There's a weird thing that some analysts do where if the number disappoints a little, they revise their views down a little; if it disappoints quite a bit, they revise down quite a bit; but if it disappoints a lot, they explain it away and/or ignore it. That's not Bayesian. https://twitter.com/Jeremy10036/status/1466763122132324354 Justin Wolfers added, . @Jeremy10036 Replying to @JustinWolfers @steveliesman said on Squawk that he doesn t believe the top line number (he s never stated that before) and that it will likely be revised much higher next month 4 replies 0 retweets 24 likes Reply 4 Retweet Retweeted Like 24 Liked 24

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More My analysis of the job market for @nytopinion looks beyond the month blips to the deeper trends. A teaser: "The rapid reboot has created a peculiar situation. The economy is still missing millions of jobs. Yet workers remain optimistic." https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/opinion/economy-biden-november-jobs-report.html 2 replies 9 retweets 27 likes Reply 2 Retweet 9 Retweeted 9 Like 27 Liked 27

Yahoo Finance Verified account @YahooFinance Dec 3 More .@UMich Prof. @BetseyStevenson on the jobs report: "The real question is gonna be: Is there a greater share of jobs we saw added in November that are permanent than what we'd normally see in November as stores start to gear up for Christmas shopping?" http://finance.yahoo.com/ pic.twitter.com/Gpzr43TfoF 0 replies 6 retweets 14 likes Reply Retweet 6 Retweeted 6 Like 14 Liked 14

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More Justin Wolfers Retweeted Kevin Milligan A bit of a flex and a useful point of comparison from our upstairs neighbors in Canada, where it's also Jobs Day, and employment hit a record high. (The U.S. remains about 6 million jobs or a pretty robust recession's worth below its pre-pandemic trend.) https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1466771543367643139 Justin Wolfers added, Kevin Milligan @kevinmilligan This is really something. *All time* high for employed/population ratio for age 15-64. Some are criticizing govt's economic management for letting the economy run too hot. The flipside of that argument is that the economy is running hot. Is that a W or a L? https://twitter.com/BrendonBernard_/status/1466770090540605440 Show this thread 4 replies 3 retweets 15 likes Reply 4 Retweet 3 Retweeted 3 Like 15 Liked 15 Show this thread Show this thread

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More Truth is, none of us really know where the labor market is right now. But I do know that I would have liked to hit whatever omicron shock is coming with a bit more positive momentum. (Also, do your bit and get vaxxed) 1 reply 4 retweets 21 likes Reply 1 Retweet 4 Retweeted 4 Like 21 Liked 21 Show this thread Show this thread

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More Justin Wolfers Retweeted Betsey Stevenson It's hard to believe that now is the right time to cut back on government jobs, and so disappointing to see public employment (mostly local govt) was a drag on this month's numbers. https://twitter.com/BetseyStevenson/status/1466768644965343238 Justin Wolfers added, Betsey Stevenson @BetseyStevenson Job loss in state and local government is still subtracting jobs from the economy. Luckily they are still rolling out the American Rescue Plan money & hopefully that will stem the job loss. And yes, they clearly needed the ARP funds. 3 replies 2 retweets 15 likes Reply 3 Retweet 2 Retweeted 2 Like 15 Liked 15 Show this thread Show this thread

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More It's also really hard to believe that any statistical procedure can nail changing seasonal patterns in a re-opening economy. That doesn't mean this month's number was an understatement, simply that we should read all data as being less informative than it might normally be. 2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes Reply 2 Retweet 1 Retweeted 1 Like 14 Liked 14 Show this thread Show this thread

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More There's no getting around the disappointing jobs headlines. There's also a bunch of (individually minor, collectively bigger) silver linings: - The household survey was much stronger - Revisions will likely be positive - Work week nudged up 1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes Reply 1 Retweet 1 Retweeted 1 Like 14 Liked 14 Show this thread Show this thread

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More Justin Wolfers Retweeted Chabeli Carrazana Some very interesting demographics here on the decline in unemployment (HT @gbenga_ajilore) https://twitter.com/ChabeliH/status/1466765604195643392 Justin Wolfers added, Chabeli CarrazanaVerified account @ChabeliH Unemployment rates for November vs October: All women: 4% ( from 4.4%) White women: 3.7% ( from 3.9%) Black women: 5% ( from 7%) big drop here Latinas: 5.3% ( from 5.7%) Asian women: 3.9% ( from 4.4%) Show this thread 2 replies 1 retweet 13 likes Reply 2 Retweet 1 Retweeted 1 Like 13 Liked 13 Show this thread Show this thread

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More It's worth noting that the initial jobs numbers have been revised upward every month this year, except March. So there's a good chance the true number is about 80k higher than today's disappointing print. That still wouldn't make up for this disappointing number. 7 replies 8 retweets 26 likes Reply 7 Retweet 8 Retweeted 8 Like 26 Liked 26 Show this thread Show this thread

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More Today's employment report is doubly disappointing, because the reference week occurred just as it looked like covid was on the retreat. This was a moment for people to return to malls and to return to work. The covid-related news has only gotten worse since then. 3 replies 5 retweets 25 likes Reply 3 Retweet 5 Retweeted 5 Like 25 Liked 25 Show this thread Show this thread

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More Hourly wages rose by a quarter of a percentage point, which is an annualized growth rate of about 3%. So wage growth isn't taking off. (Over the year, wage growth is +4.8%.) As long as there's some productivity growth there, that's not raising too many inflationary red flags. 2 replies 5 retweets 14 likes Reply 2 Retweet 5 Retweeted 5 Like 14 Liked 14 Show this thread Show this thread

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More If you put any weight at all on the household survey -- even just 10%, then 10% x 1,136k + 90% x 210k, you get a much healthier +302k. Healthier, but to be honest, still pretty disappointing. 4 replies 2 retweets 16 likes Reply 4 Retweet 2 Retweeted 2 Like 16 Liked 16 Show this thread Show this thread

Justin Wolfers Verified account @JustinWolfers Dec 3 More That sharp decline in the unemployment rate looks puzzling. But it's because the household survey is *a lot* more optimistic, showing employment growth of 1.1 million(!) 1 reply 9 retweets 21 likes Reply 1 Retweet 9 Retweeted 9 Like 21 Liked 21 Show this thread Show this thread

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Why the Jobs Report Missed So Badly

Barron's

Fri, Dec 03, 2021 01:32 PM PT

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