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User Profile: FollowClick to Follow Callum_ThomasCallum Thomas@Callum_ThomasHead of Research, Founder: @topdowncharts Global Macro & Asset Allocation Research (tweets = not advice) NOTE: I will never DM you -- see pinned tweet.Queenstown, New Zealandchartstorm.substack.comJoined May 20093,016 Following95.9K Followers

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Jul 7Pinned Tweet Notice: -Twitter has become overrun with bots/scams/spam -For the foreseeable future I will have --DM's closed, Replies turned off To get in contact with me or to discuss any charts/tweets, etc please visit: https://topdowncharts.substack.com and/orchartstorm.substack.comThe Weekly S&P500 #ChartStormWeekly charts: macro, technicals, valuations, and more -- a good and easy way to stay on top of the market outlook! Click to read The Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm, by Callum Thomas, a Substack publica...253

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Topdown Charts@topdowncharts 3hWe'll be sending the (free) "Chart Of The Week" email out soon [one of the most interesting charts on our radar + clear, concise comments] Check out last week's and Subscribe here:topdowncharts.substack.comChart of the Week and Weekly Report HighlightsThis week: Global Policy Pulse, Emerging Market Equities, EM Bonds, US Treasuries, Equity Sentiment, Industrial Metals rebound, Inflation expectations.15

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Topdown Charts@topdowncharts Aug 7Another similar chart I had also previously highlighted was the one showing investor sentiment vs economic sentiment (composite of small business, big business, manufacturing, services, housing, consumer confidence).1321

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas 5hICYMI: Weekly ChartStorm blog post https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-7-august Thanks & follow-reco to chart sources: @MichaelKantro @sentimentrader @johnauthers @MikeZaccardi @t1alpha @NDR_Research @DayHagan_Invest @WallStJesus @topdowncharts @chartrdailychartstorm.substack.comWeekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 7 August 2022This week: technical check, new bull market, dumb money, momentum, market analogs, recession vs bear market, equity flows, valuations, ecommerce trends...38


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas 21h(after a lengthy internal debate)6

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas 21h is about to go to the gym and do *1* set, just for the sole purposes of consistency 121

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas 22hsame thing with bull marketsQuote TweetCallum Thomas@Callum_Thomas May 20friendly reminder: bear markets are a process, not a percent changeShow this thread220

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Topdown Charts@topdowncharts Aug 7But going back to investors, investor sentiment, and positioning: cash allocations have crept up to near decade-highs. This is a significant move.11040

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Topdown Charts@topdowncharts Aug 7Charts from the weekly surveys by @Callum_Thomas -- investors remain deeply pessimistic on the fundamentals, meanwhile technicals sentiment is starting to rollover as stocks run into resistance...11220

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 7On the radar -China money/loans, CPI/PPI -US NFIB, UoM, CPI/PPI Markets: 10yr yield rebounding back above 2.7%, DXY also seeming to get a second wind, gold rebound stalling at resistance, WTI crude breaking down, stocks facing major overhead resistance (vulnerable to bad news)831


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 7Weekly Surveys: charts + data updatedchartstorm.substack.comWeekly Twitter SurveyLive page for the weekly twitter survey by @Callum_Thomas213


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 7Bond survey back to bearish after a brief foray on the net-bullish side17

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 7Equity survey moving back towards the bearish side this week211

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Topdown Charts@topdowncharts Aug 7Sentiment vs Positioning: As I have previously highlighted, there has been a big disconnect between investor sentiment and actual positioning.12697

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 7in case you missed it -- be sure to check out the Weekly ChartStorm blog post (extra comments, context, and a couple of bonus charts)Quote TweetCallum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 6Here it is, the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm WRITEUP: https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-7-august (definitely be sure to check out the bonus chart(S)!)4


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 7Still time to vote in the weekly surveys, I will post updated charts/data after the final results: https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-twitter-survey Quote TweetCallum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 6Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):Show this poll4

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 610. Peak E-Commerce? h/t @chartrdaily1669

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 69. Another one on valuations -- that price to book ratio chart updated. This one echoes the points from the previous chart: still a big gap between the cheapest vs most expensive parts of the market, and still elevated... @topdowncharts https://topdowncharts.substack.com/p/chart-of-the-week-and-weekly-report-d0e $SPX $SPY1435

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 68. Median PE come down to long-term average, but still significant "dispersion" (i.e. some relatively cheap and relatively expensive stocks out there) Also of note: the Median PE = no longer expensive (but not cheap as such yet either) h/t @MikeZaccardi $SPX $SPY2580

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 67. Recession typically features big outflows Good thing we're not in a """" 'recession' """" h/t @WallStJesus31112

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 66. Choose Your Own Adventure! << Bear Market Edition >> h/t @DayHagan_Invest @NDR_Research $SPX $SPY2694

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 65. Arc of ARK -- progress check... h/t @t1alpha $ARKK35140

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 64. Momentum... (but not the momentum you were expecting) h/t @MikeZaccardi $MTUM1055

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 63. buy stocks dumb dumb h/t @johnauthers @sentimentrader $SPX $SPY2076

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 62. Everyone's goin off about a new bull market cope/hope? or (up)slope? h/t @MichaelKantro $SPX $SPY28117

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 61. S&P500: resistance is fertile.. No new until breakout $SPX $SPY32192


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 7retweet-replay-time...Quote TweetCallum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 6Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm time!! $SPX $SPY $ES_F $VIX $STUDY16

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 6Here it is, the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm WRITEUP: https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-7-august (definitely be sure to check out the bonus chart(S)!)chartstorm.substack.comWeekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 7 August 2022This week: technical check, new bull market, dumb money, momentum, market analogs, recession vs bear market, equity flows, valuations, ecommerce trends...1558

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 6Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]Bullish (Fundamentals)33.1%Bullish (Technicals)15.3%Bearish (Fundamentals)44.3%Bearish (Technicals)7.4%747 votes Final results1414

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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)@Fritz844 Aug 7Weak investor sentiment on this metric. Feels accurate, judging from commentary on Twitter. https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-7-august?r=2xe91&utm_medium=android 71046

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 6Here it is, the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm WRITEUP: https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-7-august (definitely be sure to check out the bonus chart(S)!)chartstorm.substack.comWeekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 7 August 2022This week: technical check, new bull market, dumb money, momentum, market analogs, recession vs bear market, equity flows, valuations, ecommerce trends...1558


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 6Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]Bullish (Fundamentals)33.1%Bullish (Technicals)15.3%Bearish (Fundamentals)44.3%Bearish (Technicals)7.4%747 votes Final results1414

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 6Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):Bullish (Fundamentals)16.8%Bullish (Technicals)19.4%Bearish (Fundamentals)50%Bearish (Technicals)13.7%1,107 votes Final results2820

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Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 6Chart storm twitter momentCallum Thomas@Callum_ThomasWeekly S&P500 #ChartStorm - 7 August 2022415


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 610. Peak E-Commerce? h/t @chartrdaily1669


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 69. Another one on valuations -- that price to book ratio chart updated. This one echoes the points from the previous chart: still a big gap between the cheapest vs most expensive parts of the market, and still elevated... @topdowncharts https://topdowncharts.substack.com/p/chart-of-the-week-and-weekly-report-d0e $SPX $SPY1435


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 68. Median PE come down to long-term average, but still significant "dispersion" (i.e. some relatively cheap and relatively expensive stocks out there) Also of note: the Median PE = no longer expensive (but not cheap as such yet either) h/t @MikeZaccardi $SPX $SPY2580


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 67. Recession typically features big outflows Good thing we're not in a """" 'recession' """" h/t @WallStJesus31112


Callum Thomas@Callum_Thomas Aug 66. Choose Your Own Adventure! << Bear Market Edition >> h/t @DayHagan_Invest @NDR_Research $SPX $SPY2694

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